23 Cancers Mortality & Economic Burden Calculator (M-Cal)

Age-Standardised Mortality Rates (ASMR) and premature death macroeconomic burden projection tool

Age-Standardised Mortality Rates for 23 Cancers in India

Cancer mortality poses an immense socioeconomic challenge in India. This interactive tool implements a rigorous ARIMA-based mathematical model to project Age-Standardised Mortality Rates (ASMR) for 23 distinct cancer types (along with aggregated total cancers) and evaluates their direct medical burden and indirect macroeconomic productivity losses from 2020 to 2035.

Methodology Context: Projections are fitted using statsmodels Auto-ARIMA(p,2,q) minimizing BIC on annual GBD timeseries (2000-2019). The macroeconomic valuation utilizes the human capital approach, matching lost DALYs to cohort productivity weights and per-capita GDP/GNI indicators in India.

auto_storiesHow to Use the Forecasting Tool

  1. Navigate to Forecasting Tool: Click on the "Forecasting tool" tab above.
  2. Select Cancer & Sex: Choose one of the 23 cancer types. The sex dropdown will automatically filter to match gender specificity (e.g. Prostate is Male-only, Cervix is Female-only).
  3. Set Economic Parameters: Toggle GNI or GDP basis and adjust default palliative/terminal care treatment costs and annual inflation rates.
  4. Run Custom Scenarios: Click "Compute Projections" to fit auto-ARIMA models and update graphs and outcome cards instantly. You can edit individual cells in the historical table to test custom trends.
  5. Export Report: Export results directly to Excel or print/save the formatted report to A4 PDF.

settingsTechnical Specifications

  • Real-time auto-ARIMA: Fitted on the client-side using a grid-search algorithm for ARIMA(p,2,q) selecting via Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC).
  • Interactive Visualisation: Leverages Chart.js with translucent ribbon bands illustrating the 95% confidence intervals.
  • Data Exchange: Full integration with xlsx.js for exporting detailed calculations.
  • Fluent UI Design System: Styled with CSS variables, modern scroll panels, and subtle micro-animations for high-fidelity rendering.

calculateMacroeconomic Burden Model

This tool evaluates the economic impact of premature mortality using a Cost-of-Illness (COI) framework. Direct treatment costs and indirect productivity losses are scaled over the forecast horizon.

Direct Economic Burden (Palliative & Terminal care):
Direct Costt = Deathst × Unit Treatment Cost × (1 + Inflation rate)t

Where:
• t is the year offset from 2021.
• Absolute annual deaths are derived:
Deathst = (ASMRt / 100,000) × Populationt

Indirect Economic Burden (Loss of productive years):
Indirect Costt = Σi (DALYsi,t × Productivity Weighti) × (GNI or GDP per Capita) × (1 + Inflation rate)t

Where:
• i represents age cohorts (0-14, 15-44, 45-59, 60+).
• DALYs per cohort are scaled dynamically to the ASMR projection:
DALYsi,t = DALYsi,2019 × (Deathst / Deaths2019)